The group stage of the 2026 World Cup already seems to lack danger. With 32 of the 48 teams advancing to the elimination rounds, it is more difficult to be eliminated than to qualify. However, the impact of two key changes is starting to be understood by fans as the second games near their conclusion. This is the first World Cup to use head-to-head records instead of goal difference as the main play-off criterion for countries tied on points. Additionally, this World Cup will feature a third-placed ranking for the first time since 1994, as teams battle it out for the remaining eight places. The head-to-head criterion means that teams can win a group or be eliminated after two matches. Eight teams already know they have nothing to play for on the final day. For example, Argentina has six points and cannot be overtaken in Group J as they beat the two teams with three points, Austria and Algeria. Likewise, Jordan with zero points was eliminated after losing to these two teams. If goal difference had been used, every team would still have something to aim for. Will nations with nothing to lose field weaker teams in the final game? Regarding the third place ranking, due to the number of groups it takes five days to complete the last round of matches. This means, for example, that when Scotland play Brazil on Wednesday (11pm BST), they will not know what the points threshold will be to move into third. A team playing on Saturday or Sunday will likely have more clarity on what they need. Overall, the final week of the group stage will feel very different. Using head-to-head as the first tie-breaking criterion is nothing new. UEFA prefers it in all its competitions. The theory behind this is that it separates teams based on their head-to-head result, potentially ruling out the stratospheric results of other matches that can skew goal difference. Although the number of teams has halved, since 2016 the European Championships have used the same format as the World Cup with some teams qualifying third. At Euro 2016, Italy won the group and Ukraine was eliminated after two matches. At Euro 2020 it happened in one group, creating a worthless match between the Netherlands and North Macedonia. At Euro 2024, Portugal and Spain won their groups with Poland eliminated. However, already more teams have been eliminated or advanced to the round of 32 in this World Cup (eight) than in all three editions of the European Championships combined (seven). Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina are already confirmed as group winners. Haiti, Türkiye, Tunisia and Jordan know they will return home. USA-Türkiye and Argentina-Jordan were worthless matches, matches between group winners and eliminated teams. More could follow on Tuesday. England/Ghana and Colombia could secure first place, while Croatia/Panama and Uzbekistan could be eliminated. In the 2022 World Cup, only Canada and Qatar were eliminated after two rounds. What would happen if we applied the head-to-head criterion and added the potential third-placed teams to the previous edition of the competition? France, Brazil and Portugal would have already progressed as group winners after two matches, a total of five teams involved. Why does this happen? It could indicate a larger quality gap at the World Cup that allowed some countries to qualify without difficulty. The order of matches could also affect; if stronger teams play weaker teams first, they have a greater chance of accumulating six points. How will Argentina and Germany face their final group matches? It's hard to predict, but in such an intense tournament the temptation to spare players will be strong. The group winners have the opportunity to field a revamped lineup in the round of 32. This could be the case for Lionel Messi, who will celebrate his 39th birthday on Wednesday. Messi, however, will seek the Ballon d'Or having already scored five goals. We have seen the consequences before. At Euro 2024, Portugal won their first two matches and the group. In their third match against Georgia, Portugal coach Roberto Martinez made eight changes to his starting eleven. Georgia won 2-0, moved up to third place in the group and advanced to the round of 16. Hungary was eliminated from the best positions among the third-placed teams. We could see something similar at the World Cup too. Curaçao and Ivory Coast both lost to a full-strength Germany in Group E. Like Georgia, Ecuador need to win to qualify and could face a sub-par Germany on Thursday (9pm BST). This seems unfair not only to Curaçao and Ivory Coast, but also to the teams hoping to secure a place as third place. In Group A, the Czech Republic (one point) will face Mexico at the Azteca Stadium, needing a win to qualify. Morocco (Group C, four points) and the Netherlands (Group F, four points) will face Haiti and Tunisia respectively. They have enough points to progress, but could be helped in their attempt to finish in first place. The fight to be one of the third-placed teams at the World Cup is not fair at all. If you play later in the week, you know exactly what result is needed to qualify. You could aim for a draw or even just limit a defeat on goal difference. The risks of playing earlier are clear for a team like Scotland. Not only do Scotland play Brazil on Wednesday, they are also battling 37 other teams who could still finish in third place. Steve Clarke's side have three points and are guaranteed never to finish higher than third. They know that a win or a draw will be enough. But with a goal difference of zero, a heavy defeat could send them home. Should they lose, the Scots face an anxious wait, potentially until 05:00 BST on Sunday morning, before finding out whether they are in the top eight. The impact for third-place teams is greater in this shortened tournament, with no rest days before the elimination rounds begin. Scotland could face Germany in Boston on Monday at 9.30pm BST - just 40 hours and 30 minutes after the group stage ends and their round of 32 match is known. Then there is the impact of two teams playing each other for an advantageous result. Take the 1982 World Cup scandal. West Germany played Austria in the last match of the final group. A narrow victory for the Germans would have seen both teams advance at the expense of Algeria. The match ended 1-0 for West Germany. After this, FIFA changed the rules so that all final matches would take place simultaneously. But it doesn't completely eliminate the potential for similar situations. There is a remarkable coincidence at this World Cup. The last match of Group J is Algeria against Austria. Both teams have three points, and when they play on Saturday they will know if a draw sends them both safely into the round of 32. Two of the teams involved in 1982, but this time Algeria would be the beneficiaries. In another coincidence, Austria and Ukraine went into the final group match of Euro 2020 with both teams on three points - a draw would have been fine for both. Austria won that match 1-0, although Ukraine advanced. The same situation arises in Group D of this tournament: Australia and Paraguay, both on three points, can play for a draw. A similar incident happened at Euro 2004 for the top two places, and to this day many Italians believe that Sweden and Denmark orchestrated the result. If the match ended in a draw and the teams scored at least twice, Italy would be out as they scored fewer goals in the direct meetings between the three teams. Sweden equalized in the 89th minute. What was the final score? Sweden 2-2 Denmark. It will never be possible to get all the potential third-placed teams to play at the same time. But the system creates a situation where being drawn later offers a clear advantage. Of course, Scotland could simply win or draw against Brazil and secure qualification. In any case, it is still in their hands.
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